Analysis of price changes during the cutting suspe

Analysis of price changes during the cut-off period of natural rubber

rubber due to its unique characteristics of agricultural products, the global natural rubber gradually enters the cut-off period from the middle of December to the middle of April of the next year. Generally, the global natural rubber production is the lowest during the month. The unique seasonal changes of Tianjiao also affect the market trend of Tianjiao

domestic aspect

affected by the swing angle of geographical location, China is the world's first country to enter the cut-off period. In December of each year, China began to gradually stop cutting until it began to return to normal in the middle and late March of the next year. Generally, affected by the reduction of supply during the cut-off period, the domestic rubber market began to strengthen gradually in late November. At the same time, by March, the market expected that the domestic cut-off period was approaching, the supply pressure increased, and the price of natural rubber began to fluctuate and fall, Statistics of the data of the cut-off period in recent years:

the end of 2006 - the beginning of 2007: 11.27 after hitting a new low of 16900 yuan a year, it gradually rose under the expectation of supply reduction, and reached a phased high of 22470 by the end of February next year, with a time span of nearly three months, an increase of about 33%

from the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2008: similarly, it rose from 21055 yuan in late November 2007 to 24980 yuan at the end of February 2008, an increase of 18.6%. However, due to the impact of snow disaster and powdery mildew in China at the beginning of 2008, the domestic market did not start at the end of March for comparison and analysis. After falling and adjusting in March, the futures market rose strongly again in April. The 20000 points on the first route was reflected in the use, and rushed to above 28000, with an increase of more than 40%

from the end of 2008 to the beginning of 2009: affected by the financial crisis in 2008, the price of natural rubber fell all the way, and the contract in May fell to 8715 yuan on December 8, a new low in nearly six years. Subsequently, in terms of capital, domestic cut-off and the uncertainty of the State Reserve's receipt of rubber, it was rumored that China Shanghai Rubber began its rebound journey. At present, Shanghai rubber has rebounded to around 13000, up nearly 50%. From the rebound range to better realize the man-machine running in degree in the process of operation, this Shanghai Rubber rebound has reached the largest range in recent three years. According to the rise time in previous years, there are still opportunities for Shanghai Jiao to rise

Shanghai rubber price trend chart. (source: Southwest futures)

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