Doubt on the market competitiveness of the hottest

There is doubt about the market competitiveness of coal based paraffin

excess products may turn the seller's market into a buyer's market

at present, some coal chemical enterprises are optimistic about coal based paraffin or are launching projects. However, the interview learned that due to the impact of factors such as excess paraffin production capacity, shrinking exports, and the impact of low-end products, the current paraffin market may shift from the seller's market to the buyer's market, and the market competitiveness of coal paraffin as a supplement to petroleum wax is facing a severe test

paraffin is known as "platinum product" in petroleum products due to its high profit. 50% of the output of Fischer Tropsch synthesis, one of the indirect coal liquefaction technologies, is paraffin. After the ton price of paraffin climbed to about 10000 yuan in 2009, it has been consolidated at this high level. The reason why we can maintain such a high price is that on the one hand, the product is small and easy to operate, which has been pursued and speculated by some traders; Another main reason is that this product is highly concentrated in the hands of PetroChina and Sinopec, and has formed a relatively stable price over the past few years

the performance of paraffin Market in 2011 can be described as "strange". According to Ligang, the chief of the commercial section of Maoming Petrochemical sales center, the paraffin price fell for seven consecutive months from April to October, from the highest price of 11400 yuan (ton price, the same below), all the way down to 8900 yuan, and the mainstream model 58 # in the market fell below 9000 yuan, a decline that has never occurred in history for half a year. The sluggish paraffin market has led some dealers to withdraw

according to Li Fang, an analyst at zhuochuang, the price of paraffin is now 9600 ~ 10150 yuan, up 300 ~ 400 yuan compared with that before the Spring Festival. From the future trend, the international crude oil is at a high level, the price of refined oil is high, and the cost of paraffin itself is higher than that of refined oil. The two groups still have an upward attitude. The price of paraffin will still be 8500 ~ 11000 yuan, greatly reducing the high fluctuation of the friction coefficient on the inner wall of the duct, but the demand for paraffin is not strong

at present, China's total annual paraffin production capacity is 1.6 million tons, and the paraffin production in 2011 was about 1.232 million tons. With the gradual resumption of production of Fushun Petrochemical plant this year, the capacity of Jinan refinery has increased, and the total output is expected to increase to about 1.35 million tons in 2012. In recent years, paraffin consumption has decreased. The domestic apparent consumption increased from 790000 tons in 2004 to 900000 tons in 2007, with an average annual growth rate of 5%. From 2008 to 2011, China's paraffin demand began to show a downward trend, and fell to the lowest level in seven years in 2011. The apparent consumption was 781000 tons, and the domestic capacity has been significantly surplus

China's paraffin has been mainly exported. Since 2007, paraffin exports have continued to decline. In 2010, the export volume of paraffin was 519000 tons, accounting for 40.25% of the total output. In 2011, the total export volume of paraffin was 4. Richard bell, the development manager, said that 510600 tons, accounting for only 36.59% of the total output. The gloomy European economy has cast a shadow over this year's paraffin exports. In China, the downstream is dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises, and this year will further face rising production and operation costs such as labor wages, raw material prices, loan interest, plant rent, etc., resulting in declining profits and difficulties in receiving orders

coal paraffin has no cost advantage over imported crude paraffin raw materials. In recent years, many cheap crude paraffin raw materials from the Middle East and other regions have entered the Chinese market, and poor quality paraffin products have been produced after simple processing. These products began to be recognized and gradually accepted by the Chinese market, and were widely used in downstream civil candle and plastic industries. In 2010 and 2011, the import volume of crude paraffin raw materials increased at a rate of about 30%, and the price difference between processed and domestic products reached more than 1000 yuan. At the same time, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has created obstacles for domestic paraffin export, but further provided price advantages for imported paraffin

it is reported that although the price of coal based synthetic wax is cheaper than that of petroleum wax in the crude oil route, its market application is limited. Paraffin wax consumption in China is mainly used in the candle industry, accounting for 48.5% of the total consumption; The second is emulsified wax, accounting for 19% of the total demand; Thirdly, packaging wax accounts for 10% of the total demand. Coal based paraffin has high hardness and low oil content, which is inferior to petroleum wax in quality and color. The melting point of coal based paraffin exceeds 90 ℃, and it will be flame retardant when producing candles, so it cannot be used in the production of candles. The content of normal alkanes in coal based paraffin can not meet the requirements of being used as detergent raw materials

in the international market, waxes extracted from soybeans, palm and animal fats are more popular. Soybean wax is favored by the United States, while palm wax is more widely used in Asia and Europe. At present, 30% - 35% of the wax used in candle production comes from these low-cost paraffin substitutes. Compared with them, coal paraffin has no advantage in product performance or price

for this reason, some coal chemical experts suggested that under the current market situation in which Jinan assay actively assists the orderer in completing the maintenance task, the paraffin in Fischer Tropsch synthesis should not be produced as a product, but should be further processed into naphtha, liquefied gas, crude oil and other products

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