The hottest glass futures held long cautiously bef

2022-08-06
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Glass futures held long cautiously before the festival

important news

US employment data once again hit market confidence; The market strongly supports the growth plan of "abenomics"; HSBC PMI data showed weak growth in domestic manufacturing and service industries

markit data on Wednesday showed that the final value of euro zone comprehensive PMI in May was consistent with the initial value, better than the final value of 46.9 in April, indicating that the contraction rate of corporate activities slowed down slightly in May, but the long-term shortage of new orders still means that there is a certain distance from recovery

Abe's growth plan disappointed Japan's stock market closed down 3.8%, the lowest in two months

ADP employment in the United States increased by 135000 in May, the second lowest in eight months. It is expected to increase by 165000. The previous value was revised from an increase of 119000 to an increase of 113000. Goldman Sachs lowered its second quarter GDP growth forecast to 1.7% from 1.8%

press the button on the computer to start the experiment. In May, HSBC China's service industry PMI was 51.2, and the growth of manufacturing services was weak

the final value of euro zone comprehensive PMI in May was 47.7, and the initial value was 47.7

glass index analysis

on the 5th, "China glass composite index" rose 0.6 points compared with the previous day, "China glass price index" Rose 0.88 points, "China glass market confidence index" Rose 0.49 points. The industry index continued to rise, hitting a new high this year. There was no sign of turning around in the short term, but the confidence index rose too little and the market mentality was cautious

glass spot situation

on the whole, the market differences among regions across the country are still obvious, but on the whole, it is good. However, recently, some manufacturers in South China and East China have issued preferential policies, which to some extent reflects the rising trend of enterprise inventory pressure. The market price in each region increased slightly by yuan/ton, remained stable in Shanghai, and decreased by 2 yuan/ton in Guangzhou. The regional market situation is in line with the seasonal characteristics: the northern climate is suitable for construction, and the demand increases faster than other regions; Due to the influence of the rainy season in the southern market, the circulation speed slows down, the glass is not suitable for storage, and there is a large gap between the enterprise quotation and the actual transaction price; The East China market is mainly stable. Specifically, the market price in East China is mainly stable, and the price rise in the early stage suppresses the enthusiasm of the circulation channel, and the inventory of some enterprises has increased; The inventory pressure in North China is not great for the time being. The enterprise has a good mentality and is not in a hurry to adjust the ex factory price; The market performance in South China is worse than that in other regions, and the market price rises and falls. Affected by the weather, enterprises prefer to sacrifice part of their profits to stimulate shipment; The southwest region performed well, and the rising demand gradually drove up the price; The market in Northeast China is in good condition, the delivery of production enterprises and circulation channels has improved a lot, and individual enterprises have raised prices by a large margin; The prices in Northwest China are closely related to the seasonal demand fluctuations, and are not easily affected by the price changes in other regions as a whole

glass demand situation

demand situation is weak in the South and strong in the north, and the seasonal rigid demand recovery is obvious

unchanged view: the EU will finally sanction China's photovoltaic industry (impose temporary tariffs, but this trade friction must exist for a long time, and China's photovoltaic industry will also be under pressure for a long time). Its short-term impact is limited to the psychological level, and cannot fundamentally shake the overall pattern of the domestic glass market. The change in the long-term impact will more or less change the domestic glass production capacity configuration. Therefore, focus on its short-term negative impact, It is prudent to treat its compression effect on the long-term demand for glass

a new round of urbanization planning is being formulated. The market is concerned about the urbanization conference that may be held in the month. With the weakening of the impact of urbanization speculation, the market is not likely to react very strongly to this, but the expected positive impact still exists. On the one hand, it is urbanization, on the other hand, it is real estate tax. The double tube reverse stimulates the glass market, which makes it in a dilemma. The spot demand benefits from just demand, and the long-term demand can not stimulate the industry to increase inventory indefinitely. Pay attention to the amplification of demand, and give more consideration to the recovery of seasonal rigid demand. In terms of recent market demand, it has increased month on month, which is somewhat different from market expectations

glass futures situation

on the 5th, glass futures continued to rise, with a strong willingness to fall in the late trading, completely covering the gap in the early stage. In September, the contract increased by 34 yuan/ton, a range of 2.41%, and the A4 format experimental report can also be printed; It closed at 1447 yuan/ton. The trading volume was slightly larger than that of the previous day, and 61900 positions were reduced. In January, the contract increased by 36 yuan/ton, with a range of 2 In order to prevent the shoelaces from falling off by 52% when applying pulling force or tensile force to the shoelaces, it closed at 1466 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 20% compared with the previous day, increasing the position by 24444 hands. Glass futures prices continue to soar, leading the rising futures market. The holiday is approaching. In addition to the fundamental support, it does not rule out the strong speculation of funds. Personal investment should be treated with caution or wait-and-see

summary

all districts and cities in China are mainly stable, and there are no big fluctuations in prices, inventories and transactions. As the festival approaches, the enthusiasm of fund speculation is high, the concept of urbanization is revived, and the fundamentals of spot goods are not satisfactory, which leads to the strong rise of glass futures. The climate in the north is suitable for construction. The humidity and heat in the South put pressure on glass storage. The central region remains stable. On the whole, the national demand is stronger in the north than in the south. Transactions in the northwest and northeast regions are good, which is in line with the seasonal trend. The demand in the southwest region has rebounded significantly, driving the market price to rebound significantly. The urbanization conference is expected to be held in the first ten days of this month, and investors will get psychological support again. The prices of other building materials are close to the historical low of nucleating agent of 0.2~0.7, which is in the bull confidence zone. The strong momentum of glass futures prices is sufficient. Before the festival, investors should be cautious to hold more or reduce their positions appropriately

today's investment proposal

cautious long position or appropriate reduction before the holiday; Arbitrage orders continue to wait for admission

Author: ZHAOFEI (Xi'an Business Department of Wanda futures) the content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment suggestions. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk

Zhonghua glass () Department

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